8 May 2019 – The study was published by the region’s six cantonal banks, in collaboration with the CREA Institute and the Forum des 100 conference held by Swiss newspaper Le Temps. It revealed that, in addition to structural changes, demographics played a key role in the trend in retail sales. Population growth buoyed sales in the cantons of Fribourg and Valais, whereas the demographic trend was more subdued in Jura and Neuchâtel. In Geneva – a regional hub that plays host to a large number of cross-border workers and commuters from other Swiss cantons – retail numbers held firm. The decline in Vaud Canton’s retail sector over the past ten years
contrasts with the sharp rise during the previous decade.
The contraction in retail sales had knock-on effects on employment. Between 2008 and 2018, the number of retail jobs in French-speaking Switzerland dropped by nearly 6,100, or 6.8%, to 84,000, according to regional estimates prepared by BAK Economics for the cantonal banks of French-speaking Switzerland. As with retail sales figures, employment declined less in Fribourg and Valais than in Jura, Neuchâtel, and Vaud. Employment in the retail sector picked up slightly in the canton of Geneva.
The turning point for retailers came in 2008, when it became clear that e-commerce was a serious contender that would structurally change the retail sector. Online shopping had emerged in the 1990s and, despite doubts about its longevity when the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, now accounts for around 10% of Swiss household purchases, according to market research firm GfK. Also in 2008, amid the fallout of the global financial crisis, the euro began a 30% decline in value that boosted the cross-border purchasing power of Swiss consumers by the same proportion. This factor, combined with the growing popularity of low-cost flights and short vacations to European countries, helped drive up cross-border sales, which have risen to around 10% of household purchases in French-speaking Switzerland.
Today several contrasting trends are at work within the retail sector. Employment figures show that city centers have been affected more by changes to the sector than the suburbs, where superstores are taking hold. We are also seeing a divergence between food and non-food sales. In food retail, prices and revenues have come under less downward pressure and e-commerce has been slow to take root (accounting for only 2.5% of food purchases in 2018). Yet the number of jobs in food retail dropped by 17.3% in French-speaking Switzerland between 2008 and 2016. This decline, which began well before 2008, can be attributed mainly to growing productivity, as larger stores require a relatively lower number of employees.
